2015: Eurasia forecasts win for Jonathan

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World’s largest political risk advisory, Eurasia Group, has released its forecast for next year’s presidential election in Nigeria, predicting that President Goodluck Jonathan would be re-elected.

It warned that a “desperate” Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), “facing the potential loss of its power (which dates back to 1999), would exacerbate profligacy, policy politicization, oil theft, and regional/sectarian tensions”.

Eurasia gave PDP a 75% chance of winning the election but said APC, with 25%, still had a chance “if it can mobilize behind a strong northern presidential candidate that has Buhari’s backing and a vice president who can deliver votes and high turnout in the southwest”.

That means PDP is three times more likely to win the election than APC.

The group said the defections that affected PDP have stopped and have even been reversed in some cases, noting that the biggest opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC), was in “disarray”.

The report was obviously written before the Osun governorship election, which was won by APC, as it only made reference to the Ekiti poll which saw the opposition party lose in every local government.

The Africa Director of Eurasia, Philippe de Pontet, wrote that the six months leading to the presidential election “will be tense”, forecasting “constant politicking, attacks by Boko Haram… and policy stagnation” ─ and a possible outbreak of riot in northern Nigeria if Jonathan is re-elected.

Pontet wrote: “A Jonathan win could feed political unrest in the north, but makes it less likely that rebels in the Niger Delta re-ignite their attacks on oil infrastructure and personnel.”

Nigeria’s political risk was upgraded from “negative” to “neutral” in what he described as “a positive net for political stability”.

Pontet said it was unlikely there would be fiscal or monetary policy “upheaval” and that the campaigns may not completely upend the investment climate or reverse Nigeria’s economic momentum.

Eurasia Group has offices in New York, Washington, DC, London and Tokyo

 

Source www.thecable.ng

Posted on August, 28 2014

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