The meaning of Arewa declaration and the Igbo threat to Nigeria's balkanization
Posted by FactNews | 7 years ago | 2,231 times
By Akilu Sani Indabawa, PhD
The so called Arewa Youth Declaration is suspect. Someone somewhere is flying a kite and/or sending a coded messages to at least 5 constitiencies: the Nigerian state, the Igbo elites, the Yoruba bourgeosie anxiously waiting to grab power, the military and the international community... a kind of CODED MESSAGE that is capable to bring this dispensation to an abrupt end sooner rather than later.
It is a very crafty and smart coded message to all those constituencies.
1. To the Nigerian state - do something urgent before the instigated crisis erupts so it does not consume the State - engage the iron velvet strategy.
2. To the Igbos:- you can't be a Biafra and enjoy economic advantages in Nigeria. So if you are serious, leave and focus on the actualization of Biafra. By this, the Igbo masses are set up against their elites, deliberately. Next round of crisis - internal challenges within the Igbo nation and the overthrow of the IPOB in the same way MASSOB was dealt with.
3. To the Yoruba bourgeoisie - you have everything to lose in the unfolding power calculations if you allow the Biafran agitation - you will be consumed in your propaganda - self-determination advocacy now that IPOB has outsmarted you. The traditional Yoruba - Igbo rivalry will be brought to bear. Are you ready to sacrifice the advantages of taking power in favour of a smaller portion of the land and its resources? They will shout "Yoruba Ronu!".
5. To the military - 1965/66 is being re-enacted. You will be the ones to fight and kill yourselves in the event of a war - would you not prefer a military take over so the whole thing is rearranged and started afresh again? The northern power elites that have sensed some lost of relevance will be there to support your moves of reuniting the country and ensuring national survival - a task you did in 1967 - 1970.
6. To the international community - imagine the mass movement of Nigerians across the borders of West, North and Central Africa, arising from balkanization crisis unleashed by the attempt to actualize the Biafran dream. ECOWAS, AU and super powers will prefer the easier option of supporting a military take over to a bloody civil war in which all actors involved are now fully armed to the teeth - courtesy of the Arab spring and its aftermath - making BH insurgency a rehearsal. Arms dealers will be in brisk business while the west loses the huge market in West, North and Central Africa. So, accept a military intervention and save the series of disasters envisaged.
7. In the final analysis, the economically powerless and politically rudderless northern political elites that have invested all their eggs in PMB's basket will begin to bounce back to relevance having effectively halted the SW's ascendancy to power, and the miscalculated chessboard moves of the Igbo political elite.
A game of relevance and intrigues continues of which its outcome, only time will tell.
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