"America wonder" democracy

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The American political cum democratic system is patently flawed and Hillary has no basis to declare victory before super delegates actually vote.

Democracy in its simplest form is called majority rule. That means the position of the majority expressed as votes will stand in every contest. Forget the Florida debacle that returned a Bush with less popular votes but emerged from votes cast at a disputed precinct controlled by his brother Jeb. Let's focus on the primary system only.

Was the democratic primary that led to Hillary's declaration as "presumptive nominee" a true expression of the confirmed voted of the majority or a rigged process by the political establishment to foist one of them on the party as candidate?

Let's explore and discuss.

Democrats provide for pledged or popularly elected delegates and super delegates who are expected to vote at the convention in their primary process since early 80s. The pledged delegates are bound to vote for their allocated candidates.

So far Hillary has amassed 2203 pledged delegates while Sanders have 1828 delegates.

To win the primaries and become the automatic presumptive nominee a candidate needs to secure 2383 pledged delegates outright. But where non of the candidates is able to blow away others and reach the magic number the rules provide for super delegates (party officials) to cast their votes on the first day of the convention and flip any of the aspirants to victory.

But in the current "America wonder" system a strange thing happened. Even before her opponents for the ticket emerged, Hillary went to super delegates and convinced them to support her and 574 of them agreed to vote for her when the time comes. By the time Sanders applied for the contest only 48 super delegates agreed to vote for him. This mean that he started the game with a massive disadvantage as against a level playing field.

The super delegates are not bound to their promise and are free to change their mind or voting promise  on convention voting day. It is therefore the case that since they have not voted yet you cannot count their votes. If for instance they walk into the party's convention and decide to change their mind for any reason at all, they are free.

Take a situation where Hillary is indicted by FBI over her email server affair, the super delegates will simply cast their votes for Sanders and he will be declared the valid winner and nominee.

Of course it is conceivable that all things being equal the 574 super delegates will vote for Hillary on convention day but the fact remains that they are yet to vote. Until that vote is cast Hillary is not yet the presumptive nominee. Sanders is also not the presumptive nominee. Both failed the exam.

That is quite unlike the rookie politician, Donald Trump, who blew away 16 politically strong and tested Republican politicians to exceed the mark of 1237 set by his party. Trump got 1447 pledged delegates and 95 unpledged delegates to beat the mark set by his party.

Trump is the authentic presumptive nominee of his party and it is important to note that he decimated 16 strong rivals including former and serving governors, senators etc. In reality he is the only one who has made political history so far. Not Hillary.

Even the claim that Hillary scored more votes than Trump is a "rigged" statement that failed to take note of facts behind figures. While Hillary had only one opponent, a 74 year old Vermont Senator and a socialist, Trump had 16 strong rivals with each of them politically stronger than Sanders that faced Hillary.

While Hillary garnered 16m votes with only one opponent, Trump got 13m with 16 opponents. Anyone conversant with mathematical proportionality will readily tell you that he actually performed better and at a much cheaper cost too.

Take the results from 4 states and see for yourselves.

California (D-State)
Hillary 1,940,580
Sanders 1,502,043

Trump 1,174,829
Cruz 144,125
Carson 54,145
Gilmore 11,101

New York (D-State)
Hillary 1,054,073
Sanders 763,469

Trump 524, 924
Kasich 217,904
Cruz 126,151


Ohio (R-State)

Hillary 679,266
Sanders 513,548


Kasich 956, 762
Trump 727, 585
Cruz 267,592
Rubio 59,418

Florida (R-State)
Hillary 1,097, 400
Sanders 566,607

Trump 1,077,221
Rubio 636, 653
Cruz 403, 640
Kasich 159, 412
Bush 43, 452
Carson 21,163

I deliberately chose 2 big democratic (blue) states and 2 big republican (red) states. Will I be wrong to state that if Hillary had contested against same number of opponents as Trump at every stage she wouldn't have garnered more than 5m votes? Check for yourself by applying proportion mathematics.

The truth is that Hillary belongs to the political establishment on the left of American politics and they rigged the process for her using super delegates. Like Trump, Sanders is a political outsider or "insurgent" and the democratic establishment can't stand him as their candidate.

Just like Trump is an outsider in the republican political establishment and they hate him for ruining their "party".  Most of the GOP establishment figures like Paul Ryan, the Bush family and Mitt Romney are sore as a result of the hostile take over by Trump.

Make no mistake about this: sore Republican establishment politicians will rather have Hillary win than vote for Trump. They are attacking him directly and with their surrogates all over the media. Of recent they have taken to democrat leaning media houses like CNN to attack anything Trump. Expect kitchen sink to be thrown at him too.

Very soon the political establishment across the aisle will suffer backlash because of Trump and Sanders. It will start with contested senate and house seats. Political careers will be truncated or ruined outright when the anger of voters manifest. Watch the primaries involving GOP members who refused to back Trump whole heartedly and tell me when political disasters start happening to those who cannot read the signs of the times or refused to bury bruised political egos.

Most Nigerians watching from home, like me, might not understand what is going on and think that Hillary is more popular than Trump because we mostly get our news from CNN and sources like Washington post. Those and many others are pro-liberals and can aptly be called Clinton News Networks.

There is absolutely nothing CNN will not do to ensure that Hillary win: from the subtle to the obvious like inviting a panel of 5 with 3 Clinton supporters, one GOP sore loser and one Trump supporter. Expect worse because almost all the CNN anchors and producers are biased against Trump. They now have good allies in defeated GOP leaders and their surrogates.

Yet Trump can still beat them all and win. First he needs to call the bluff of Paul Ryan and co and work only with those who are truly ready to work with him within the Republican party . The more Americans feel he is isolated by the political establishment the more angry voters will gravitate towards him.

Washington has not worked for majority of American families and they won't mind a shake up by an outsider. That includes potentially 40% of Sanders supporters.

That number will increase if Sanders lay down the markers and insist on nobody being declared presumptive nominee till super delegates have cast their votes at the convention. If he does that he would have ensured a more profound change in the rigged system that prevents "political outsiders" from contesting and winning American presidency. That will be a fitting political legacy for a 74 year old.

History will be kind to Sanders for standing up for his supporters and against the establishment political behemoth. In the coming hours and days he will come under massive pressure to endorse Hillary this week but if he does that, though politically expected, he will miss an opportunity to be a change agent in American political history. Change agents usually have thick skins and the coming days will confirm how thick Sanders skin is.

For common folks in USA, most of them are already excited about Trump winning the Republican nomination with about $50m while Hillary and her numerous super pacs have spent more than $230m to get to same point. Meanwhile Trump is a multi-billionaire while Hillary and her husband are professional politicians.

If you are a voter in USA which of these 2 will you vote for to fix the economy or improve it? "Economy stupid" will ultimately decide this election, not TelePrompTer speeches on foreign policy.

If Trump hammer home the fact that he spent less than 25% of what she spent to make the nomination common folks who are worried about the economy will naturally be inclined towards standing with him.

Common folks actually do not expect Trump to be "presidential" because they know he is a political rookie as against being a professional politician. They even love his freshness and the associated political blunders. Therein lies the danger of kow towing to the same establishment that couldn't deliver Romney with all his presidential appearance.

Americans are supremely confident that embedded in their leadership systems are the tools to make Trump presidential when he is elected the President and most of them are loving even his gaffes. They see themselves in Trump and feel that only immigrants are overly concerned. (That holds true for Mexican, African and Latino immigrants)

Whichever way it goes, history will be made. Either a patently independent rookie emerges president of USA or the highest ranking political establishment woman in American history will ride on the old order to ensure that things remain same in America through a rigged system.

I am betting on Trump to win. He looks like the political version of Leicester City to me.

 

Posted on June, 9 2016

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