Trump will likely win America's 2016 "anger and fear" presidential election

By John Okiyi Kalu on

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You can debate it from now till November 2016 but I firmly believe Trump will likely beat Hillary Clinton same way he is beating Cruz, Kasich and the GOP establishment.


Know why?


He has a solid support base and is immune to gaffes.


Hillary will be more scrutinized during the polls than Trump. She is a "precarious" candidate with extremely low error margin. Anything that can go wrong will always go wrong but those that started down can only move up as people re-examine them.


Last night, Trump won all 5 Super Tuesday contests in Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Maryland. In contrast, Clinton won Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut and Delaware. Sanders won Rhode Island even with the momentum on Clinton's side.


Americans are angry with their political establishment and afraid of Islamic terrorists attacking them at home. Worry about immigration is linked to fear of terrorism at home and loss of jobs to others.


Many will start taking Trump serious and will cling to the smallest positive from him. In the coming days many of those who railed against Trump will sneak back to him. But those who have not joined the Clinton train will be extremely reluctant to do so and more than 50% of Sanders supporters fall into this group. That is one reason Sanders is still in the race.


Forget "rigged" national polls meant to favor Hillary. She won't do as well when matched against Trump in the national poll though currently the electoral college favors her. Assuming Trump turns New York in the general election she is all but sunk.


Two externalities will impact Hillary: terror attack and Obama. In addition to that, she is prone to embarrassment from the email gate affairs and will carry every single Obama baggage.


But guess her biggest weakness: she represents what Americans don't like about their political establishment. That is the biggest Clinton baggage.


This is a poll to watch closely because it will change American politics. If you think Republicans won't rally round Trump you are mistaken. It will be suicidal for the Republican Party to contemplate another candidate other than Trump and soon you they will fall behind him.


"When a strong wind blows the grasses bend low to allow it to pass."-Igbo proverb.


"America votes 2016" is the anger and fear poll. Trump is running and feeding on the anger and fear of Americans while his opponents are running and feeding on fear of Trump victory. In my view, the anger against the system is stronger than the fear of Trump.


Unlike other polls, money is not winning this poll because of the Trump phenomenon. He has so far spent the least money in this election round and won more votes per dollar spent. In addition, he has added more support to his party than any other candidate in this or previous polls.


Hillary is too plastic and "programmed" in this era of spontaneity. America is asking for humans as against political robots. She is acting and saying same things every politically correct politician will say and do.


But this election is not a normal election because anger and fear combined remain very toxic mixture of emotions that follows its own trajectory without thought for what is wrong or right.


Posted on April, 27 2016

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