Still on Abia 2015: separating the NOISE from FACTS.

By John Okiyi Kalu on 27/12/2014

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My people, our people, I salute you once more. I hope you enjoyed your xmas rice and chicken. A time was when xmas was one of only 2 seasons in a year when we were guaranteed to eat chicken. But to the Glory of God we can now walk into Mr Biggs and other eateries and chew boneless chicken all year round. Though, amazingly, xmas Chicken still manages to taste better than all those daily servings of Chicken at eateries. Is that also your experience and did you notice that even if you kill a cow or goat for xmas it won't exactly feel like xmas chicken? No wonder many households will first prepare chicken stew before using the beef and goat meat to prepare for the "public".

I read the online posts on how Dr Okezie Victor Ikpeazu of PDP was "stoned" and "booed" at Aba and simply had a good xmas laugh. Want to know why I laughed?

Such cock and bull stories are meant for the online crowd that know very little about the realities on the ground in Abia and can swallow anything churned out by the combined forces of the former regime in Abia and those of an intending candidate of APGA who is allegedly part-funded by a northern moneybag as part of a larger agenda. Of course I find nothing wrong with them hanging on to propaganda as a possible return path to Abia Government house given that we have a great PDP candidate in Dr Ikpeazu whose profile and records cannot be assailed. You can imagine his opponents' desperate recourse to campaigning with his last name and confirm that they have run out of ideas to campaign with. They don't want to be "ndi Ikpeazu" but will rather be ndi "ottolororo". How I wish they read the portion of the scripture that says that the first (ndi mbu) shall be the last and the last (ndi Ikpeazu) the first.

Anyhow yagayaga, O ga eme ha n'anya vuum maka na IKPEAZU ndi Abia ga enwe nmeri (VICTORy) ma Oke ha Zuo.

Okezuo Abia 2015 is 95% guaranteed.

To the politically uninitiated,  the posts on "stoning" and "booing" are actually meant to instigate a section of Aba residents to violence against Dr Ikpeazu. But that won't work because Okezie is an authentic Aba boy who is on the ground. He does not need any introduction to the people of Aba and Abia voters and you can call anyone at Aba and ask "who is Okezie Victor Ikpeazu" and get a response. Take my word for it, Okezie regularly walks through the streets of Abia without security even as the most likely next Governor of Abia state. The man does not even like sirens and I will share what he told me on the issue of siren later. Don't be surprised to see him at the usual Aba hang outs because he is a man at home with Ndi Aba and Ndi Abia. He still plays Sunday morning football at Aba with others. (Note that he is a devout Adventist who attends services on Saturdays). Also see attached picture and spot Abia's incoming governor after a football game.

Please don't ask me the game his opponent plays because even though we know we don't want the campaign to turn to akuko a......a. Let his opponent just tell Abians where he has been and what he has been doing for Abians since he acquired fabulous wealth as well as what he did for them in moments of distress. Then add what he will do if we elect him, Mfiri onu is not the type of election campaign fit for first class graduates. It is only for entertainment by comedians and Governance is not a comedy show.

To the point: is it even remotely possible that Alex Otti will beat Dr Okezie Ikpeazu? Let's crunch the numbers and educate non Abians or Abians in "diaspora" so that people will understand when losers call press conferences after the February election. It doesn't take rocket science to know who will win a guber election if you understand the demographics and the issues involved. Follow me please, but stop me if I am wrong.

Abia State of Nigeria has 17 LGAs with 9 of those in the Ngwa axis. (If you know this fact you will also ask those peddling the rumor on how Okezie will be impeached by someone where the legislative votes will come from, unless you can imagine that Ngwa people will vote to impeach an Ngwa Governor afer many years of fighting for equity). Hahahahahahahaha, mumu dey smell like yeye. You simply need 2/3 of all legislators votes to impeach and if the Ngwa legislators still have votes in ABSHA then you are a joker feeding on propaganda. Again, note this carefully, if anyone can impeach Okezie then same person can impeach Otti who has no political base, ten times easier. It is called political reality. As you read along you will discover that Alex simply has no political base as his earlier mistakes ensured that.

The remaining 8 LGAs in Abia are in Old Bende area and includes 3 Umuahia related LGAs. You might hate or love Ochendo Global but I wonder if you also have the right to tell Umuahia people to hate him. Apart from "diasporan" Umuahians who didn't register to vote in Abia, you will hardly read any true born Umuahian speak ill of Ochendo. What that simply means is that Okezie will benefit from Ochendo's popularity in the Umuahia LGAs and also in other old Bende areas.

If you are adding up properly, that should give Okezie an assured voting base of 12 LGAs out of 17. Right or wrong?

Let's look at Aba that people make much noise about.

We have 5 LGAs around where you call Aba. They include Aba South, Aba North, Ugwunagbo, Osisioma and Obingwa. Okezie is from Obingwa so you already know "whatz up". Ugwunagbo and Osisioma are mostly  populated by Ndi Ngwa and you can imagine how the "land will slide" for Okezie. Aba north and south still have Ngwa populations but also include a large chunk of Anambra, Imo and Abiriba born residents alongside others. But here is the catch: on election day, most of these voters return to their villa and states to vote thereby leaving a residual population of mostly Ngwa voters on the ground. Unfortunately, those "migrant voters" are also the vocal minority in Aba that will make the most noise.

Hahahahahahahaha, have you seen how the sh..t will hit the ceiling? I feel pity for those paying millions to market leaders at Aba because they are wasting their cash on a demographic group with only noise value but zero electoral value. O ga eme ha n'anya vuum.

I can imagine some of you are itching to ask me if Alex Otti is not from a community in Abia. Permit me to help you unravel that yourself.
In 2011 Governor T. A. Orji announced publicly that he will support an Ngwa born candidate to succeed him as governor in the spirit of equity and fairness. (Currently Abia is basically made up of Ngwa and Old Bende people.) Some of those with guber ambitions immediately mobilized to become Ngwa-born at all cost. Dr Alex whose father was born and bred at Arochukwu but relocated to Ngwaland as an adventist pastor immediately commenced building a home at the Arungwa area where his father lived, died and was buried. But note that before then he had a house at Arochukwu as an authentic Arochukwu man and rightly so. But in the period he was contesting under PDP he claimed his Arungwa connection as root until it became clear that Abia PDP will insist on zoning to the only senatorial zone that is yet to produce the governor of Abia-Southern Senatorial District. Incidentally, Dr Otti's assumed constituency, Arungwa, is in same zone with the incumbent Ochendo Global and hence he can't continue to lay claims to that perceived zoning advantage. In response, he immediately changed to "merit" candidate and subsequently bolted from PDP to APGA and started claiming Arochukwu again. Una dey read?

Political observers in Abia State are waiting for him to announce his running mate so we will know definitively if he has settled for Arungwa or Arochukwu as place of origin. But word out in the street last week suggested he will go for an Abia north running mate which will mean sticking to Ngwa roots. If that pans out correctly it will be interesting because I am sure that Arochukwu people won't find it funny at all. And if he reverses that in favour of Ngwa deputy, uwa agwula.

Lol @ politically motivated identity crises.

Just so that I don't bore you this boxing day, permit me to show you likely voting patterns in Abia state per LGA and leave you to decide if it is remotely possible for a candidate whose putative party is currently rebuilding it's grass root network can win in February. I typed "rebuilding" because most of us know that the real APGA in Abia State is in the hands of Chief Reagan Ufomba who is yet to give up on his guber ambitions. If you think Alex can buy Reagan off then you don't know the man called Reagan Ufomba. At the moment he is out campaigning for Abia governorship on same APGA ticket and if fortunes smile at him at the supreme court then Dr Alex is sunk for real. (Remember my note on the parallel between the Soludo situation in Anambra and Otti's in Abia?)

Here is how the LGAs are likely to vote in Abia and I await a factual disputing.

1. Aba North PDP
2. Aba South PDP
3. Arochukwu Toss Up
3. Bende PDP
4. Ikwuano PDP
5. Isiala Ngwa North PDP
6. Isiala Ngwa South PDP
7. Isuikwuato Toss up
8. Obi Ngwa PDP
9. Ohafia Toss up
10. Osisioma PDP
11. Osisioma Ngwa PDP
12. Ugwunagbo PDP
13. Ukwa East PDP
14. Ukwa West PDP
15. Umu Nneochi PDP
16. Umuahia North PDP
17. Umuahia South PDP

To the online chanters; kindly show us where Alex Otti will win from. We are ready to learn from you why the projection above won't hold.

Meanwhile I have personally observed that nobody is talking about ongoing reconstruction of PH road in Aba, Osisioma junction that has been fixed and Aba-Owerri road all in Aba. That is in addition to the work done at Ikot Ekpene road after opobo junction. Is it not worth mentioning or am I the only person who drove through those portions of Aba roads? Or is it politically wrong to acknowledge the improvements, especially since the noise was never really about Aba roads but rather a well funded campaign to return Abia to a cabal that decimated it but divinely lost power before they could actualize the plot to enslave Abia for a minimum of 32 years?

Any which way, the truth is that Dr Okezie Ikpeazu is our best bet to further develop infrastructure at Aba. He is from there and lives there with his family. If we are complaining about bad roads he must have used same roads and as Governor must necessarily focus on fixing them. This is the time to generate ideas and pass to him as well as rally round him to lead the charge in growing Abia to the level we desire. If we refuse to rally round him because we are an "online intellectuals" who must oppose all opposeables, it is fair to expect that others we call "touts" will rally round him because nature abhors vacuum. And then the ekweghiekwe people will start another four years of complaining, taking pictures and abusing whoever they want to abuse. Before they know it, their  life will end as perpetual complainants and abusive men and women. (May that not be your portion in Jesus name)

My people, our people, Okezie ga emeri. Hapunu mfiri onu na mpoto. Support him today so that together we can all build the Abia of our dream. Also go out and enjoy your yuletide celebrations because Abia 2015 governorship election effectively ended the day Dr Okezie Ikpeazu defeated the equally humble and lovable Sampson Ogah during the openly credible PDP governorship primaries.

Happy Boxing Day sha.

Still waiting for my first xmas gift sha. If you have received any on my behalf, as usual,  please send it before ottolororo.....

 

Posted on December, 27 2014

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